JPMorgan analysts revised their energy outlook upward, projecting oil could reach $97 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by early June under a finalized US-Iran ceasefire deal. The forecast ties price relief to a specific diplomatic timeline rather than abstract de-escalation.
The bank’s scenario assumes shipping insurance costs fall, export volumes normalize, and risk premiums embedded in futures contracts unwind quickly once transit resumes. Delays or partial openings would likely keep prices elevated above the target.
Energy traders have watched Hormuz negotiations closely because the waterway carries a substantial share of global crude flows. Any credible reopening plan tends to move benchmarks within hours, affecting airlines, refiners, and consumer fuel bills.
JPMorgan’s note adds to a growing body of Wall Street analysis linking geopolitical outcomes directly to commodity price paths. Investors will scrutinize official announcements in the coming days to judge whether early June remains a realistic horizon for restored passage.
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Sources:
https://us.cnn.com/2026/05/24/world/live-news/iran-war-news