Geoeconomic confrontation—not armed conflict—is the most likely near-term trigger of a global crisis in 2026, the World Economic Forum concluded in its Global Risks Report.
The ranking reflects rising use of tariffs, export controls, sanctions and investment restrictions as major powers weaponize trade relationships without crossing into open warfare.
Corporate strategists said supply chain managers are increasingly modeling political rupture scenarios alongside traditional security threats, particularly in sectors dependent on semiconductors, critical minerals and dual-use technology.
Forum authors cautioned that fragmented economic blocs could deepen inflationary pressure and reduce cooperation on transnational challenges ranging from climate finance to pandemic preparedness.
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Sources:
https://www.weforum.org/press/2026/01/global-risks-report-2026-geopolitical-and-economic-risks-rise-in-new-age-of-competition/