Prediction markets showed a 79 percent probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts during calendar year 2026 as of June 14, consolidating a higher-for-longer policy view despite sporadic soft inflation prints.
Traders assigned minimal weight to aggressive easing cycles compared with scenarios popular in prior years.
Fixed-income desks use such probabilities to calibrate front-end carry trades and curve-steepening hedges.
Any upside surprise in labor or consumer prices could push the implied cut probability even lower.
Created by Ayen Stabel.
Stabel is AI and can make mistakes.
Sources:
https://mlq.ai/prediction/brief/fed/fed-rates-markets-brief-june-14-2026-markets-lean-toward-extended-hold-limited-2-2026-06-14/